Summary
- The Australian Government is likely to announce net zero by 2050 target and a new 2030 projected emission scenario. This has not yet happened. While welcome, this proposal would not address the deep cuts in emissions science demands of Australia this decade.
- Australia continues to support and expand fossil fuel exploration and development and continues to play a globally significant ‘wrecking role’ in international climate negotiations.
- Australians have one of the highest per capita contributions to climate change.
- Cuts to emissions have largely been driven by sub-national Governments and factors outside the Government’s hands, such as drought and
Domestic Climate Policy
- Australia has largely been without an effective carbon reduction policy since the ruling Liberal/National Government came to power in 2013. In 2014 they repealed the previous government’s carbon pricing mechanism, which had successfully reduced Australia’s emissions in previous years.
- In defiance of the Paris Agreement that “each successive NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution] will represent a progression beyond the previous one and reflect the highest possible ambition”, Australia resubmitted its unchanged NDC on 31st December 2020. This highly insufficient NDC sets out a target of 26% to 28% reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 levels by 2030. The recent announcements by the Government do not constitute a commitment under the Paris Agreement.
- The 26% to 28% target is inadequate by any metric and in 2015 the Australian Government’s own independent Climate Council Authority recommended a target range of 46-65% by 2030 from 2005 levels. More recent analysis published in 2020 indicates that to achieve net zero by 2050, Australia’s domestic emissions reductions would now need to be around 66% below 2005 levels by 2030, with full decarbonisation of the power sector by the mid 2030’s.
- Climate Action Tracker has rated Australia’s NDC as “highly inadequate” and consistent with a world warming as much as 4 degrees.
- Australia’s most populous states, NSW and Victoria, have announced targets to halve emissions by 2030, three of the smaller states and territories have the same or more ambitious targets. This means, existing sub-national commitments could deliver national cuts of 41-42% by 2030. Federal Government action is required to fulfill the gap.
- The Australian Government claims it is on track to meet its Paris Agreement targets, a claim which is questionable, especially when the targets were lower than many comparable countries. Australian emissions have reduced largely due to factors outside the Federal Government’s controls, such as COVID, the deeper cuts that were achieved under the previous Government’s carbon pricing (which was abolished by this Government) and reduction in land clearing and agricultural emissions due to regional government policies and drought.
Continued Promotion and Export of Fossil Fuels
- Despite adoption of various climate targets and the International Energy Agency clearly stating that there must be “no investment in new fossil fuel supply projects”, Australia continues to support the expansion of the major contributor of climate change, fossil fuels (primarily coal and fossil gas).
- In just September/October 2021, three new coal mines were approved in the state of New South Wales alone, including at Mangoola, which will produce 52m tonnes of coal over the next 8 years.
- Australia continues to be the one of the world’s largest gas exporters and coal exporter (largest by value). Australia’s scope 3 emissions from seaborne coal, at 0.9 billion tonnes of CO2, are twice its domestic emissions.
- In response to COVID-19, the Australian Government announced a ‘gas-fired recovery’’. The 2021-22 federal budget, revealed in May of this year, includes $58.6 million in new measures to drive this initiative. This will fund the development of a gas supply hub, the expansion of numerous pipelines, as well as an import terminal. Alarmingly, proposed fossil gas projects represent an annual climate impact of more than half of Australia’s annual emissions.
- Transport decarbonisation is sorely overlooked in Australia. The Government’s Future Fuels Strategy (FFS) discussion paper, which replaced a commitment to an EV Strategy, showed no new funds or regulations for transport. There are no fuel efficiency standards and some state governments are now pursuing their own road user taxes just on electric vehicles.
Australia’s behaviour in International Forums
- Australia’s behaviour in negotiating targets and exceptions at both Kyoto and Paris have been criticised, including that ““Australia has always demanded an easy ride at international climate talks”. Australia has been roundly condemned for attempting to count Kyoto Agreement ‘carryover credits’ to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, the only country in the world to do so. The Government has since confirmed that it will not attempt to use the credits.
- Despite its leading role in the Green Climate Fund (GCF), with Ewen McDonald acting as the longest serving Co-Chair and Howard Bamsey the Executive Director of the fund’s secretariat, in 2018, Australia followed President Trump’s lead to exit the GCF. This decision goes against the interests of Australia’s Pacific neighbours, and their need for climate security.
- At a time of crucial climate negotiations in all international institutions, Australia has nominated the former head of the Minerals Council of Australia as ambassador to the OECD. Brendan Pearson is the Prime Minister’s trade advisor and has been critical of the international effort for carbon border adjustment tariffs. He is the former head of the Minerals Council of Australia (which was named by Influencemap as one of the ten most impactful climate blockers).
International Comparisons
- Based on Australia’s domestic efforts to tackle climate change, the latest UN Sustainable Development Report ranked Australia last of all 193 member countries for climate action. The report cited that “major challenges remain” in Australia taking action to combat climate change and its impacts. This comes despite Australia being ranked 35th in overall performance across all 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
- Australia ranks poorly on a number of climate indices. According to Climate Analytics:
- Australia’s per capita emissions are 2.90 times the G20 average.
- Australia’s emissions (excl. land use) increased by 31% between 1990 and 2018 to 560 MtCO2e. When considered by category, increases were largely due to energy- and industry-related emissions. Energy emissions increased 48% since 1990 and industry emissions increased 31%.
- Australia generated 77% of its electricity from fossil fuels in 2020.
- Building-related emissions per capita are around three times the G20 average as of 2020.